Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 177.203604 215.924812 264.328105 330.522882 420.722394 5.425105e+02 7.252408e+02
2025-03-02 128.136108 169.953544 228.902772 321.838280 472.507101 7.235399e+02 1.216651e+03
2025-03-09 101.578160 142.389324 204.752234 313.531470 514.867939 9.144644e+02 1.925651e+03
2025-03-16 83.838642 122.186672 184.280425 301.109333 541.197055 1.094062e+03 2.874376e+03
2025-03-23 77.648475 118.049132 187.794083 330.941592 664.804235 1.598238e+03 5.908988e+03
2025-03-30 69.494815 108.812922 179.844133 335.249068 734.916610 2.049131e+03 1.069914e+04
2025-04-06 64.087977 103.217651 177.095717 349.388693 840.149206 2.778042e+03 2.342306e+04
2025-04-13 57.734769 94.810465 166.996819 343.212457 884.791696 3.360865e+03 4.582128e+04
2025-04-20 55.700626 94.075030 172.226977 376.546516 1083.977870 5.240052e+03 2.280424e+05
2025-04-27 53.427794 92.472059 175.211968 405.463829 1299.208562 8.175381e+03 4.136144e+06
2025-05-04 50.930633 90.016162 175.745386 427.952523 1517.322350 1.265999e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 48.229777 86.743821 173.705282 442.098820 1718.693455 1.919046e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 45.372445 82.957205 170.192219 452.259886 1931.632312 3.032038e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 41.832708 77.277408 160.990111 439.889380 2001.064940 4.068287e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 38.725234 72.200350 152.511143 427.483693 2063.682338 5.504382e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 35.746659 67.091252 143.148349 408.806327 2063.555223 6.893698e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 35.352502 67.781034 149.408852 453.927038 2674.871222 2.383358e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 33.677056 65.302894 146.489925 460.492796 2969.691354 5.887906e+05 NaN
2025-06-29 32.577022 64.057074 146.868082 482.127373 3506.416699 3.565078e+06 NaN
2025-07-06 30.736124 60.840589 140.966706 472.661267 3654.541394 1.545111e+07 NaN
2025-07-13 30.518646 61.553531 146.953518 524.045557 4889.993143 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 30.064160 61.622965 151.017110 569.191816 6378.738164 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 29.386032 61.046463 152.936159 604.655375 8036.351992 NaN NaN